Forecasting of Foliar Fertilizers Sales in an Agrochemical Plant

Pablo Alberto Perez Gosende; Diana Gabriela Portugal Cordova; Fernando Xavier Medina Muñoz

Forecasting of Foliar Fertilizers Sales in an Agrochemical Plant

Título traducido de la contribución: Pronóstico de Ventas de Fertilizantes Foliares en una Planta Agroquímica

Pablo Alberto Perez Gosende, Diana Gabriela Portugal Cordova, Fernando Xavier Medina Muñoz

Grupo de Investigación Interdisciplinar en Matemática Aplicada (GIIMA)

Producción científica: Contribución a una conferencia › Documento

Resumen

La situación competitiva de la producción y venta de fertilizantes foliares en Ecuador, claramente requiere el uso de herramientas de gestión de gestión que asegure o facilite la comprensión de la demanda futura y permitir la toma de decisiones operativas bajo condiciones inciertas de mercado. Entre estas herramientas de gestión están las técnicas de previsión. En este documento se describe en detalle el proceso de venta de fertilizantes foliares foliares de una empresa agroquímica agroquímico para el periodo 2015. Después de utilizar cinco modelos de series temporales, el que mejor se ajusta a los datos históricos fue la regresión lineal. Dada la presencia de un componente estacional en en el patrón de la demanda, la previsión mensual se realizó mediante un método estacional multiplicativo.

Título traducido de la contribución	Pronóstico de Ventas de Fertilizantes Foliares en una Planta Agroquímica
Idioma original	Inglés estadounidense
Estado	Publicada - 2 dic. 2015
Evento	II Congreso Salesiano de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para la Sociedad (CITIS 2015) - EC Duración: 2 dic. 2015 → 3 dic. 2015 https://citis.blog.ups.edu.ec/historia-del-congreso/congreso-citis-2015

Conferencia

Conferencia	II Congreso Salesiano de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para la Sociedad (CITIS 2015)
Período	2/12/15 → 3/12/15
Dirección de internet	https://citis.blog.ups.edu.ec/historia-del-congreso/congreso-citis-2015

Palabras clave

Foliar fertilizers
Sales forecasting
Time-series models

Areas de Conocimiento del CACES

118A Producción agrícola y ganadera

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abstract = "The competitive situation of production and sales of foliar fertilizers in Ecuador, clearly requires the use of management tools to ensure or facilitate an understanding of future demand and allow operational decision-making under uncertain market conditions. Among these management tools there are the forecasting techniques. In this paper it is described in detail the process of foliar fertilizers sales forecasting for an agrochemical business for the period 2015. After using five time-series models, the one that best fits the historical data was the linear regression. Given the presence of a seasonal component in the pattern of demand, the monthly forecast was made by a multiplicative seasonal method.",

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N2 - The competitive situation of production and sales of foliar fertilizers in Ecuador, clearly requires the use of management tools to ensure or facilitate an understanding of future demand and allow operational decision-making under uncertain market conditions. Among these management tools there are the forecasting techniques. In this paper it is described in detail the process of foliar fertilizers sales forecasting for an agrochemical business for the period 2015. After using five time-series models, the one that best fits the historical data was the linear regression. Given the presence of a seasonal component in the pattern of demand, the monthly forecast was made by a multiplicative seasonal method.

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KW - Sales forecasting

KW - Time-series models

KW - Foliar fertilizers

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KW - Time-series models

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ER -

Forecasting of Foliar Fertilizers Sales in an Agrochemical Plant

Resumen

Conferencia

Palabras clave

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