PREDICTORES DE LA PERTENENCIA A PARTIDOS POLÍTICOS Y MOVIMIENTOS SOCIALES EN QUITO-ECUADOR

This study comparatively explores the determinants of membership in political parties and social movement organizations in the Ecuadorian context of 2017-2019. The methodological design corresponds to a repeated cross-sectional research, with three samples collected in Quito-Ecuador in 2017 (n1 = 1136), 2018 (n2 = 1520) and 2019 (n3 = 824), through the application of face-to-face surveys. For data analysis, logistic regression models were developed to detect the factors that influence the individual probability of belonging to political parties or, on the other hand, to social movements. Empirical findings reveal that while factors such as internal political efficacy and online exposure to recruiting actions generally favor membership in political organizations, there are also differences in the explanatory pattern of membership depending on whether they are political parties or social movements. Specifically, socioeconomic and psychological predictors that are relevant to political party membership tend to vary significantly in the case of social movements. Given that the quantitative study of the determinants of membership in political groups has been a topic little explored in Ecuador, and Latin America, this study seeks to make an initial contribution to the explanatory knowledge about this political phenomenon.