Reliability Assessment of Ecuador’s Power System: Metrics, Vulnerabilities, and Strategic Perspectives

Ecuador’s power system has experienced a significant decline in reliability due to its strong reliance on hydroelectric generation, which constituted 67.4% of the national energy mix in 2024. The severe drought of 2023–2024 severely diminished generation capacity, exposing critical vulnerabilities in the National Interconnected System. Under actual operating conditions, the system recorded a loss of load expectation (LOLE) of 91 days per year in 2024. Projections indicate that, without urgent corrective actions, energy deficits could exceed 250 days per year by 2029. Addressing these challenges demands a diversification of the energy matrix, integrating flexible generation sources, energy storage systems, and expanded deployment of solar and wind technologies. Achieving international reliability benchmarks (LOLE ≤ 0.1 days/year) will be essential to ensuring a secure and resilient electricity supply. This study underscores that, without strategic intervention, Ecuador may face prolonged energy crises, offering a cautionary outlook for power systems heavily dependent on climate-sensitive resources.