Predicción de la demanda eléctrica a corto plazo mediante cadenas de markov y monte carlo

Diego Carrión, Estuardo Correa, Edwin García

Resultado de la investigación: Contribución a una revistaArtículorevisión exhaustiva

Resumen

Forecasting electrical demand is currently a discussion subject, but due to its random and stochastic behavior it is very difficult to do. In the present research, a methodology is proposed to predict electricity consumption in the short term using Markov Chains and Monte Carlo, and the results are validated with numerical techniques of curve reconstruction such as least squares and cubic splines, as well as verification of real demand behavior. Finally, the error that the proposed model has is verified against the other alternatives, having it be reduced. As well as, the prediction of electricity demand for a period of 7 days.

Título traducido de la contribuciónForecasting electrical demand in short term based on markov chains and monte carlo
Idioma originalEspañol
Páginas (desde-hasta)253-269
Número de páginas17
PublicaciónRISTI - Revista Iberica de Sistemas e Tecnologias de Informacao
Volumen2020
N.ºE30
EstadoPublicada - jun 2020

Nota bibliográfica

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, Associacao Iberica de Sistemas e Tecnologias de Informacao. All rights reserved.

Palabras clave

  • Curve Reconstruction
  • Demand Forecasting
  • Electrical Demand
  • Markov Chains

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