Estimation of pollutant emissions in real driving conditions based on data from OBD and machine learning

This article proposes a methodology for the estimation of emissions in real driving conditions, based on board diagnostics data and machine learning, since it has been detected that there are no models for estimating pollutants without large measurement campaigns. For this purpose, driving data are obtained by means of a data logger and emissions through a portable emissions measurement system in a real driving emissions test. The data obtained are used to train artificial neural networks that estimate emissions, having previously estimated the relative importance of variables through random forest techniques. Then, by the application of the K-means algorithm, labels are obtained to implement a classification tree and thereby determine the selected gear by the driver. These models were loaded with a data set generated covering 1218.19 km of driving. The results generated were compared to the ones obtained by applying the international vehicle emissions model and with the results of the real driving emissions test, showing evidence of similar results. The main contribution of this article is that the generated model is stronger in different traffic conditions and presents good results at the speed interval with small differences at low average driving speeds because more than half of the vehicle’s trip occurs in urban areas, in completely random driving conditions. These results can be useful for the estimation of emission factors with potential application in vehicular homologation processes and the estimation of vehicular emission inventories.