Community-Based Adaptation to Climate Change in Ventanas Subtropical Zone: Validating Climate Projections with In-Situ Data

Climate Change (CC) is a global threat, in Ecuador, although climate projections exist, few are validated with in-situ data; even, community adaptation solutions are scarce. This research aims to understand the projected impacts of CC in the subtropical zone, and validate these with in situ-data, finally propose a community-based adaptation plan to CC for the Ventanas Canton. Data from five meteorological stations were analyzed using Climdex, and the projections to 2070 from Ecuador’s Third National Communication on CC (TNC) were validated with in-situ data. A total of 383 surveys and community meetings were conducted, analyzing indicators from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC) and the National Information System (SNI), along with regulations and public policies. The identified climate threats include an increase in maximum temperature by 1.5 ℃ to 1.9 ℃, a rise in minimum temperature by more than 2 ℃, and an increase in annual precipitation by 50 mm to 300 mm, which aligns with the perceptions of 94% of the population. 72% of the population believes that the responsibility to address CC should be shared between the local government and the community. Significant correlations were found between climate threats and socioeconomic indices, with a value of 0.93 for those affected by consecutive dry days (CDD) and 0.43 for those affected by extreme rainfall (R99p). An adaptation plan is proposed in accordance with national regulations, focusing on priority sectors such as agriculture, livestock, aquaculture, ecosystem conservation, sustainable water use, human settlements, public health, tourism, and infrastructure, and incorporating cross-cutting themes such as communication, education, awareness, research, monitoring, and land-use planning.