Assessment and Selection of Fuel Models in Areas with High Susceptibility to Wildfires in the Metropolitan District of Quito

Fuel models are a crucial component of modeling fire behavior in wildfires, and their appropriate selection is essential for developing effective management strategies. This research presents and evaluates a simple methodology for selecting fuel models based on comparing the main features of standardized models with open-access geographic information and dead fuel loads sampled on field. For evaluating fuel models selection FlamMap simulation of recent wildfires that occurred in three high susceptibility areas within the Metropolitan District of Quito: Casitagua, Ilalo, and Guagua Pichincha volcanoes were carried out. The final extension of simulated and real wildfires was compare using Cohen’s kappa coefficient, obtaining values of 0.53, 0.35, and 0.47, respectively. These results indicated a moderate to acceptable relationship between simulations and actual fires. Additionally, simulations of the effects of fire barriers to estimate the reduction in the final wildfire extension were carried out, obtaining reductions of 22%, 47%, and 37%, respectively. In conclusion, this methodology provides a useful approach to selecting appropriate fuel models for effective wildfire management strategies in highly susceptible areas.