TY - JOUR
T1 - Analysis and prediction of vehicle kilometers traveled
T2 - A case study in Spain
AU - Narváez-Villa, Paúl
AU - Arenas-Ramírez, Blanca
AU - Mira, José
AU - Aparicio-Izquierdo, Francisco
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
PY - 2021/8
Y1 - 2021/8
N2 - Knowledge of the kilometers traveled by vehicles is essential in transport and road safety studies as an indicator of exposure and mobility. Its application in the determination of user risk indices in a disaggregated manner is of great interest to the scientific community and the authorities in charge of ensuring road safety on highways. This study used a sample of the data recorded during passenger vehicle inspections at Vehicle Technical Inspection stations and housed in a data warehouse managed by the General Directorate for Traffic of Spain. This study has three notable characteristics: (1) a novel data source is explored, (2) the methodology developed applies to other types of vehicles, with the level of disaggregation the data allows, and (3) pattern extraction and the estimate of mobility contribute to the continuous and necessary improvement of road safety indicators and are aligned with goal 3 (Good Health and Well-Being: Target 3.6) of The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda. An Operational Data Warehouse was created from the sample received, which helped in obtaining inference values for the kilometers traveled by Spanish fleet vehicles with a level of disaggregation that, to the knowledge of the authors, was unreachable with advanced statistical models. Three machine learning methods, CART, random forest, and gradient boosting, were optimized and compared based on the performance metrics of the models. The three methods identified the age, engine size, and tare weight of passenger vehicles as the factors with greatest influence on their travel patterns.
AB - Knowledge of the kilometers traveled by vehicles is essential in transport and road safety studies as an indicator of exposure and mobility. Its application in the determination of user risk indices in a disaggregated manner is of great interest to the scientific community and the authorities in charge of ensuring road safety on highways. This study used a sample of the data recorded during passenger vehicle inspections at Vehicle Technical Inspection stations and housed in a data warehouse managed by the General Directorate for Traffic of Spain. This study has three notable characteristics: (1) a novel data source is explored, (2) the methodology developed applies to other types of vehicles, with the level of disaggregation the data allows, and (3) pattern extraction and the estimate of mobility contribute to the continuous and necessary improvement of road safety indicators and are aligned with goal 3 (Good Health and Well-Being: Target 3.6) of The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda. An Operational Data Warehouse was created from the sample received, which helped in obtaining inference values for the kilometers traveled by Spanish fleet vehicles with a level of disaggregation that, to the knowledge of the authors, was unreachable with advanced statistical models. Three machine learning methods, CART, random forest, and gradient boosting, were optimized and compared based on the performance metrics of the models. The three methods identified the age, engine size, and tare weight of passenger vehicles as the factors with greatest influence on their travel patterns.
KW - CART
KW - Gradient boosting
KW - Kilometers traveled
KW - Mobility pattern
KW - Passenger vehicles
KW - Prediction
KW - Random forest
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85112133504&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/ijerph18168327
DO - 10.3390/ijerph18168327
M3 - Article
C2 - 34444076
AN - SCOPUS:85112133504
SN - 1661-7827
VL - 18
JO - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
JF - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
IS - 16
M1 - 8327
ER -