Simulation to Estimate Deaths from Lung Cancer Due to Environmental Contamination of Pm2.5

The objective of this study is to estimate the number of deaths from lung cancer caused by environmental pollution due to exposure of people to fine particulate matter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5). To this end, a study was carried out with a deductive approach in which simulations of the environmental morbidity assessment model developed by the World Health Organization were carried out. The exposure of the population to PM2.5 pollution was evaluated, based on data monitored at 12 air quality stations in the Metropolitan District of Quito in the population groups exposed to PM2.5, and the incidence on health, estimated in the mortality rate in the population. For the analysis period 1990-2020, the total number of deaths due to lung neoplasms is 3058 ± 24 of which 523 ± 32 would be associated with PM2.5 concentrations; equivalent to 17.1%, CI=95% [15.9%-18.3%] and a Relative Risk of 1.2046 [1.0688, 1.394]. These results were obtained through software developed for this purpose. In conclusion, the values obtained in the present simulation are within the confidence interval in relation to other similar studies. AbstractThe objective of this study is to simulate the estimation of the number of deaths from lung cancer caused by environmental pollution due to human exposure to fine particulate matter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5). To achieve this goal, the study was conducted with deductive approach. A simulation environmental model to assess morbidity developed by the World Health Organization was applied, based on population exposure to PM2.5 pollutant. This was done with data obtained from 12 air quality stations of the Metropolitan District of Quito and the population groups exposed to PM2.5, determining the impact on health. The final simulation was calculated using the death rate in the population. For the period 1990-2020, the total number of deaths due to lung neoplasms was 3058 ± 24. The number of these deaths associated to PM2.5 pollution was 523 ± 32, which supposes a Relative Risk of 523 ± 32, equivalent to 17.1%, CI=95% [15.9%-18.3%]. These results were obtained through software developed for this purpose. In conclusion, the values obtained in the present simulation are within the confidence interval of other similar studies.