Modelamiento Ambiental para Evaluar la Distribución Espacial Actual y Potencial de Inia Geoffrensis, Bajo Escenarios del Cambio Climático

Climate change is one of the main factors affecting the distribution and viability of numerous species worldwide. Inia geoffrensis, the Amazon river dolphin, is a key species and a critical bioindicator of river ecosystems, whose distribution could be severely impacted by climate change. In this study, ecological niche modeling was applied using the MaxEnt algorithm to evaluate the current and future spatial distribution of Inia geoffrensis in Sucumbíos Province, Ecuador. A total of 65 occurrence records and seven bioclimatic variables, both current and projected for the year 2070, were used under two climate change scenarios: SSP 245 (moderate) and SSP 585 (extreme).The results indicate that the suitable habitat for Inia geoffrensis in the region, currently estimated at 2110 km², will decrease by 72.7% under the SSP 245 scenario and completely disappear under the SSP 585 scenario. Within the political limits of Sucumbíos Province, the current high suitability area is 1780.64 km², which will decrease by 69.67% under the SSP 245 scenario. The modeling revealed that the minimum temperature of the coldest month and temperature seasonality are the primary factors determining the species' distribution. These projections highlight the vulnerability of the pink river dolphin to climate change and the urgent need to implement conservation strategies.