Medium-term Electric Network Planning Using SARIMA: EERSA Case Study - Ecuador

This article analyzes the future electricity consumption of Empresa Eléctrica Riobamba S.A. (EERSA) in Ecuador, specifically in the residential, industrial, and commercial sectors. Time series models like ARMA, ARIMA, and SARIMA are utilized to make medium-term predictions, and Matlab software is used to design the models and make demand predictions. The data used to make these predictions comes from historical information held by EERSA, spanning from January 2001 to November 2022. The predicted electricity demand closely matches the original demand in the residential and commercial sectors before 2020. Still, there has been a significant variation in recent years due to atypical events like the COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, the prediction results for the industrial sector align with the original demand before 2018, but the pandemic has affected demand after that date. Notably, this sector has a distinct characteristic due to significant consumers, such as Cemento Chimborazo company, which has caused considerable variation in electricity demand since 2018.