Measuring the effects of climate change on traditional crops in tropical highlands, Ecuador

Studying the climate of the Tropical Central Andes is challenging due to its complex topography, diverse climatic regions shaped by the Andean Mountains, and the scarcity of in-situ meteorological data. This limitation complicates assessments of climate variability and its impact on agriculture. This study evaluates the impact of 2050 climate change scenarios on blackberry, tree tomato, maize, and potato production in Tungurahua, Ecuador, by estimating water availability for rainfed crops. In-situ available meteorological data were collected and analyzed using the ClimDex methodology to assess long-term climatic trends. Additionally, the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) was employed to model agricultural productivity under pessimistic and optimistic climate scenarios. Climate change projections to 2050 were based on data from Ecuador’s Third and Fourth National Communications on Climate Change. The results indicate that, to date, climate change effects in this region have not been significant; higher temperatures have reduced frost occurrence, and no substantial increases in extreme rainfall or droughts have been observed. However, future projections suggest increased precipitation, a higher likelihood of extreme rainfall, and a decline in drought frequency. These expected changes highlight the need for adaptive strategies in agricultural planning and water resource management.