Predicción de la demanda eléctrica a corto plazo mediante cadenas de markov y monte carlo

Translated title of the contribution: Forecasting electrical demand in short term based on markov chains and monte carlo

Diego Carrión, Estuardo Correa, Edwin García

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Forecasting electrical demand is currently a discussion subject, but due to its random and stochastic behavior it is very difficult to do. In the present research, a methodology is proposed to predict electricity consumption in the short term using Markov Chains and Monte Carlo, and the results are validated with numerical techniques of curve reconstruction such as least squares and cubic splines, as well as verification of real demand behavior. Finally, the error that the proposed model has is verified against the other alternatives, having it be reduced. As well as, the prediction of electricity demand for a period of 7 days.

Translated title of the contributionForecasting electrical demand in short term based on markov chains and monte carlo
Original languageSpanish
Pages (from-to)253-269
Number of pages17
JournalRISTI - Revista Iberica de Sistemas e Tecnologias de Informacao
Volume2020
Issue numberE30
StatePublished - Jun 2020

Bibliographical note

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© 2020, Associacao Iberica de Sistemas e Tecnologias de Informacao. All rights reserved.

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